Ooh...Oscar nominations are in. Usually, I could really care less as I think these nominations are normally more about marketability and less about talent. But since the writers are still striking (and I'm not complaining...they deserve their residuals), and there's nothing else to really comment on...I'll give you my rundown and picks. Remember, all my picks are 1) based strictly on nothing but my opinion...I haven't seen nearly all of these movies 2) assume that these people would win if I ruled the world. These choices are in Blue while I have speculated on who I think will actually win in Red. Just something to keep in mind.BEST PICTURE
"Atonement" (Focus Features)
"Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
All I really ask here is that "Atonement" not win. I have a problem with movies adapted from books this excellent (okay, except Harry Potter). I'd love Juno to win...the whole story of how this movie got made is mystical and somewhat anti-establishment. TWBB will win, however, because of its 1) timely political undertones and 2) Daniel Day Lewis who is always playing some butt-ugly character who is given the assumption of deep social resonance. And in the commercials he has a vein clearly popping out of his forehead. Julia Roberts had that same vein when she won for Erin Brockovich. Let's face it...the Academy loves vein-popping performances.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent)
Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)
This is a toughie b/c all choices are hot (yes...even TLJ in that kind of "craggy" way) so that does me no good. I'd love to see Viggo bring this one home. From what I could tell, he nailed the Russian accent of his character that's somekind of hitman in the Russian Mob. He also sports a body full of sweet tattoos, delivers what I believe is the first full-frontal nudity scene by a male in a mass-released movie (and in that scene, he's actually fighting...hmmm...I'm not sure how I feel about that), and has recently strung together some excellent performances that have gotten exactly zero notice. Even though he's not young, he's standing on the brink of "stardom" akin to that of Harrison Ford, Tom Hanks, Denzel. This could tip the scales in his favor. Despite all of this, DDL will win b/c of the vein-popping. Mark my words. (P.S.--I wouldn't mind if Johnny got this nod either...who else could really play the Demon Barber of Fleet Street on the big screen?)
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros.)
Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild" (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson’s War" (Universal)
Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
This category: much easier. Casey Affleck--too young. Hal Hobrook--too old...seriously, I thought this dude kicked it ten years ago. Philip Seymour Hoffman--too weird and this movie is too commerical and was a colossal flop at the box office...and I was actually surprised he wasn't nominated instead for his role in The Savages which would have made my estimation much different. I'd love to see TW win: his body of work in supporting roles is huge and he's ALWAYS good. Can I tell you what he's been in? No. And that's the point of this category. He's the greatest supporting actor ever known. Unfortunately, Javier Bardem has more superficially going for him. He's a Spaniard (and we loooove those...look at Antonio Banderas: talented? We don't know. Spanish: yes. Award winner: yes) and he had this wacky, Dorothy Hamill haircut in this movie. In the same vein as Daniel Day-Lewis previously (pun shamelessly intended), the Academy loves these "method" performances. The haircut will win.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal)
Julie Christie in "Away from Her" (Lionsgate)
Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse)
Laura Linney in "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)
Ellen Page in "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
This is a seriously difficult category on the "I wish" side of things. Laura Linney should win one of these one day...and she will, but not this year. Too much other compelling competition. Ellen Page...I have to assume this is really an emotional pick and illustrates, in my estimation, the value in releasing a movie almost immediately before noms are in. People got all caught up in Juno without thinking more objectively about the performance. (See more in the screenplay category for this conversation). Marion Cotillard should win this. Albeit a newcomer, from what I read she absolutely nailed her recreation of Edith Piaf on screen. And I just want to listen to her accept the award (if she is going to be a scab and actually cross the WGA picket lines). Unfortunately, Julie Christie is an emotional favorite here. She's an old lady playing someone struggling with Alzheimer's--or some mental disorder. As Michael Caine's pageant-trainer so famously says in Miss Congeniality, "The winner was a deaf-mute...you can't beat a deaf-mute." Same scenario: Not even Edith Piaf can beat and old, decrepit character dying of a debilitating mental disease. And Julie Christie was Lara in Dr. Zhivago and Madame Rosmerta in Harry Potter. She's been waiting a long time. Oh, and if Cate Blanchett wins in this category, I'll kill myself...okay, maybe not kill...but I'll seriously consider maiming...something that's temporary.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett in "I’m Not There" (The Weinstein Company)
Ruby Dee in "American Gangster" (Universal)
Saoirse Ronan in "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone" (Miramax)
Tilda Swinton in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
Actually, both of these are hopes, but I'm confident Tilda will take it. If Saorise Ronan wins, I'll know people are smoking crack. This Irish Dakota Fanning needs to put in more time before she gets recognized with this award. I'd argue it's the character as it's written, and not as performed, that's striking--a product of the author and not the actor. Go back to 7th grade and maybe we'll see ya next year, hon. Amy Ryan plays a coked out, wrong-side-of-the-tracks but make-good mom has a lot of appeal...we want to root for the underdog, don't we? I have absolutely no knowledge of American Gangster at all, so Ruby Dee could really deserve this and I don't know. Sorry Ruby. I hope for Cate Blanchett here b/c she's nominated for playing Bob Dylan in one of the craziest movies I've ever heard of...how cool would it be for a woman to win an award for playing a iconic male weirdo-slash-genius? Very cool. Tilda, however, will win b/c she plays an "ugly" woman on screen; she's dressed in conservative corporate wear, sporting no make-up and stringy blond hair. She's today's unwaxed woman and the Academy loves those "gritty" performances. It takes courage to look "normal" on screen. She sewed it up with those conservative too-low but still high black pumps and a skirt that hits her mid-shin.
DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson - "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen - "No Country For Old Men"
Tony Gilroy - "Michael Clayton"
Jason Reitman - "Juno"
Julian Schnabel - "The Diving Bell And The Butterfly"
Having not seen the movies, this one's tough to comment on. However, Jason Reitman is Ivan Reitman's son. To me, anyone who can count Ghostbusters as part of their ancestral legacy should win ANY award. Who cares about his actual, individual merit? Nepotism is not always bad. The Coens will win because nobody has forgotten their awesomeness that includes and Fargo and O' Brother, Where Art Thou? And, they were the purveyors of "the haircut" (previously discussed) which only gives them another strong check in the "plus" category.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Brad Bird - "Ratatouille"
Diablo Cody - "Juno"
Tony Gilroy - "Michael Clayton"
Tamara Jenkins - "The Savages"
Nancy Oliver - "Lars and the Real Girl"
I'm going to out on a limb here and say that this will be the category where what is ideal and real will meet. I think Diablo's absolutely running away with this here. Why? 1) Her name means "Devil"= deliciously cool 2) She used to be a stripper = street cred 3) She used to be poor = ultimate rags to riches story 4) She wrote a hamburger phone into the screenplay as a major character = original 5) She created Juno = feminist but without the angry edge 6) Did I say her name means "devil"? Of all of these, I think her work is most witty, cynical, and cutting edge, which seems to be the tone of all of these movies. The only exception is Michael Clayton which might steal it for that only reason. Then I'll be angry. Go, Diablo!
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson - "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan & Joel Coen - "No Country for Old Men"
Christopher Hampton - "Atonement"
Ronald Harwood - "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Sarah Polley - "Away from Her"
Same phenomenon here, but for different reasons: These two actually wrote this script and directed the movie. Who doesn't love multi-tasking? And furthermore, Christopher Hampton should be ashamed of himself--he surely destroyed what is the ultimate best book I've ever read. Leave it alone Christopher...move to a small, tropical island and seek refuge there. I'll stop hunting you down in a year or so.
ANIMATED FEATURE
"Persepolis" - (Sony Pictures Classics) Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
"Ratatouille" - (Pixar; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures Distribution) Brad Bird
"Surf’s Up" - (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ash Brannon and Chris Buck
I don't care about these animated movies at all this year. But given that Ratatouille 1) Is a French movie 2) about a culinary rat 3) that's the only one of the three I can remember 4) because Disney spent bajillions of dollars promoting it...it'll win. It does mark the selling out of Patton Oswalt who I will never forgive. Ever.
Hope you don't mind but I left out all the other categories because, let's face it, those are the ones we use for bathroom breaks and snack-making ventures anyway, proving that we could really all care less. You can thank me later.
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